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AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 100.2W AT 30/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 355 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 09N89W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO 08N107W TO 13N117W TO 10N134W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N E OF 84W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 115W. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THURSDAY REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND FROM 30N128W TO 24N140W BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELL BEGINNING TO ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 19N140W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ HUFFMAN

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