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AXPZ20 KNHC 182055
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 18/2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 155 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 105W-110W. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...RAINFALL AND SWELLS REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N86W 7N91W 11N98W TO 11N120W WHERE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 84W-89W.


...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 28N125W. NW SWELL BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A SMALL SECTION AND WILL RECEDE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 130W. THIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO SAT.

$$ PAW

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