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AXPZ20 KNHC 011518
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N100W TO 00N111W TO 00N117W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 05N91W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 40N138W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 30N128W TO 14N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BUILDING TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST N OF THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W-126W. ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOWS SEAS TO 13 FT IN THIS AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THU BEFORE DIMINISHING. A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BLANKETS THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 116W-130W AND N OF 09N W OF 130W. FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS LIE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER W WATERS BY THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 22N124W TO 05N125W. A 50-KT SOUTHERLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET IS PROMOTING LIFT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N123W TO 04N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N-13N. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS NEW ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. THE BEST VERTICAL LIFT WILL SHIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DECREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

GAP WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W TO 05N91W IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE BREEZE. THIS BREEZE IS BEING ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO REACH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 89W WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK PULSE OF WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST.

$$ SCHAUER

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