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AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO 106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO 12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$ STRIPLING

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