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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$ LEWITSKY

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