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AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N84W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 14N120W TO 22N116W.


...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N117W TO 19N128W...AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N113W TO 22N115W TO 17N130W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1033 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 41N141W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 24N124W. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$ STRIPLING

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