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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310307
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS SAT MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN HOWEVER...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RETURN FLOW SAT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SAT EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS IN COMBINED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND NE SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 109W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N117W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.


...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND N OF 19N W OF 115W...INCLUDING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS...IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND W OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL FROM 20N-26N. RADARS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BORDER W OF 105W. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO MEXICO. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N132W THROUGH 32N132W...THEN SPLITS IN TWO WITH ONE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N115W AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SW THROUGH 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 1900 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD LINGER OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS WEAKENING. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND PULSE TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT. AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS COMBINING WITH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS THE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N.

$$ SCHAUER

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