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AXPZ20 KNHC 090943
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM FORCE LEVELS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/ EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N114W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 02N121W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W THROUGH LATE TUE...AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE WED.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID- WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$ HUFFMAN

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