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AXPZ20 KNHC 270924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND AND SW OF THE GULF TO ABOUT 12N98W. IN ADDITION...AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 16 FT DOWNSTREAM AND SW OF THE GULF TO NEAR 13N96W...AND A SHIP REPORTED NE WINDS OF 33 KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT NEAR 11.5N98W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 45-50 KT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN TO 25 KT BY LATE SAT AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE SUN MORNING. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE AS NORTHERLY SWELL WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND APPROACH THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N90W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N90W TO 10N108W TO 08N120W TO 10N125W TO 08N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 9.5N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUES MAINLY BETWEEN 27N TO 29N WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS LATE TODAY.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THESE GAP WIND REGIONS. LATEST ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS BOTH GULFS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITH THESE EVENTS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS AND EXTENDS 30N138W TO 28N140W. A SECOND COLD FRONT W OF AREA WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT LATE TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W TONIGHT AND FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W AS A WEAKENING FRONT BY FRI NIGHT. NW SWELL TO 12-13 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY.

1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N127W TO 10N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-10 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF TROUGH TO 131W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$ GR

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