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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N126W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY FLARING. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...ALSO W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N128.5W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL W-NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 09N ALONG 88W BUT CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07-17N ALONG 110W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 12N WITHIN 300 NM E AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W TO 07N99W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N111W TO 09N116W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW FROM 09N116W TO THE EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 12N126W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 10N140W.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 06.5N77.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 08N105W...N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 15N123W TO 09N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 16N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF BAJA THROUGH EARLY THU WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7- 9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BRIEFLY BELOW 8 FT EARLY TONIGHT. SIMILAR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT.

$$ NELSON

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