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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N77W TO 08.5N85.5W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 06N80W...ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06.5N97W TO 07N117W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N133W TO 06N140W.




...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM 32N100W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 11N131W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 28N...AND WILL MOVE E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N116W TO 10N110W TO 08N130W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-11N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N106W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N TO ALONG 20N AND SPREADING E TO ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRADES RELAXING BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR 29N139W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7- 10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20 KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY TUE.

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