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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N91W TO 08N103W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ IS FROM 08N110W TO 06N121W TO 07N128W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST N OF 25N AND W OF 127W THROUGH THIS PERIOD...PEAKING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE PULSING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 07N AND 10N AND W OF 139W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AT AROUND 1200 UTC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE MAXIMUM.

$$

ERA

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