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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061507
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1435 UTC Tue Dec 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1415 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 08N80W to 11N93W.
The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 11N103W to
08N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 08N between 78W and 81W. Similar
convection is within 180 nm north of a line from 14N103W to
06N126W to 06N134W, and also from 07N to 08N between 136W and
139W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A trough is expected to develop from weak low
pressure over northwest Mexico near 32N114W to the south across
the northern gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is
expected southeast of the trough to 29N, with the strongest winds
near Isla San Luis. The next cold front is expected to pass
across the northern gulf waters on Wednesday. Light and variable
winds are forecast across the gulf waters south of 29N through
Wednesday, then becoming northwesterly behind the front. Fresh
northwest flow will arrive behind the front on Thursday, except
locally strong across the central and southern gulf waters.

A ridge will meander across the area from roughly 23N116W to
16N103W through mid week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
forecast around the ridge as long period northwest swell
continues to subside, with the highest seas of 5 to 8 ft
persisting 120 nm seaward to the north of 29N through Wednesday.

A low level trough extends from 16N102W to 14N105W with clusters
of moderate to locally strong convection occasionally flaring
across zone PMZ025.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate southerly flow will shift
to northerly with nocturnal drainage flow late tonight, and again
late Wednesday night. A strong cold front will move through the
southwest Gulf of Mexico north of the area by the end of the week,
with high pressure surging down across eastern Mexico. Northerly
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will rapidly increase to gale
force Thursday night, continuing through Saturday afternoon. Seas
will build to near 18 ft downstream of the gulf.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore flow will resume
Wednesday night and Thursday night, increasing to strong Friday
night and Saturday night.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 4
to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere north of 09N/10N, while light to
moderate southwest flow is observed to the south of 09N/10N.
Combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, in mixing long-period northwest and
southwest swell, are expected this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeast from 30N131W to 17N112W. The
parent surface high will shift into the north central waters near
29N123W by late Wednesday night. This high will strengthen some
and block the eastward advance of a cold front, causing it to
stall from 32N137W to 31N140W on Thursday.

Moderate to locally fresh northwest to north flow is expected to
the northeast of the ridge this week, except fresh to locally
strong breeze forecast along 32N at 120W. Moderate to locally
fresh northeast trades currently south of the ridge are expected
to weaken from the north today, then increase to moderate to
locally fresh again on Wednesday through Thursday, with the fresh
winds expected just north of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft
in mixing northeast winds waves and long period northwest swell
currently north of the ITCZ and west of 109W, are expected to
gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late tonight.

$$
LEWITSKY

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