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AXPZ20 KNHC 022109
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N92W TO 09N101W TO 08N109W. THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS FROM 07.5N110W TO 06N119W TO 07N127W...AND CONTINUES FROM 06N128W TO 03N140W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N126.5W TO 06N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N139W TO 29N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST N OF 25N AND W OF 127W THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL PEAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT BETWEEN 06N AND 11N AND W OF 137W. CORRESPONDING ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THIS REGION. SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST AND SEAS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE 8 FT IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TAD ON WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL SUGGESTS N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AT AROUND 1200 UTC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE MAXIMUM.

$$

ERA

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