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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 45-50 KT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 24- 25 FT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND APPROACH THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N96W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 10N108W TO 11N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 119W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUES N OF 27N WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF FONSECA...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY THU... THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AND MORNING BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU THROUGH FRI. NW SWELL TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS THROUGH THU.

1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N119W TO 11N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 120W.

$$ MUNDELL

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