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AXPZ20 KNHC 242204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 12N92W TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 1608 UTC SHOWED THE BROAD CYCLONIC CENTER JUST NEAR 12N92W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND JUST EAST OF THE PLUME OF GAP WINDS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W 1007 MB TO 08N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N118W 1010 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.


...DISCUSSION... 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED 23N115W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT REACHES FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED GALE FORCE NW WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS LIFTING TO THE NE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N125W TO 23N140W BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. AN ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 17 FT NEAR 35N145W. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 13 FT ENTERING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADES TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N110W.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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