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AXPZ20 KNHC 312206 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 136.7W AS OF 31/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1069 NM E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO SLOW SOME AND TURN TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE W PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE...WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN BANDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. JIMENA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 480 NM N AND 270 NM S OF THE CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS IS NEARLY CONCENTRIC WITH THE RADIUS OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED 12.4N 111.8W AS OF 31/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 639 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT WAS FORMERLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... DEEP CONVECTION OF THE SCATTERED STRONG INTENSITY HAS FORMED PARTIALLY OVER THE CENTER...AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM NEAR 13.5N 113.0W LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT NEARS 14.7N 114.2W BY TUE AFTERNOON AND NEAR 18.3N 115.6W BY WED AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N89W WITH THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING SW TO 09N96W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12N107W...THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN- E AND TO 10N118W TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE AREA OF E BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 119W- 122W...AND TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N139W TO 09N135W TO 10N133W.


...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32W136W TO NEAR 28N129W TO NEAR 23N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 23N WHERE THE TRADES GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONE JIMENA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS N OF 27N E OF 123W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN NW SWELL PROPAGATING S TO 23N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MIDDAY WED. THE 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N89W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE SW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR OR ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PROXIMITY OF 10N120W BY WED.

UPPER LEVELS... BROAD TROUGHING N OF JIMENA EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA. TO ITS S...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 20N118W WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN IT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E TO MOVE IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION.

$$ AGUIRRE

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