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AXPZ20 KNHC 020924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N90W TO 09N100W TO 07N110W TO 06N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.




...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING 30N143W WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REACHING FROM 30N134W TO 27N140W TONIGHT...AND FROM 30N127W TO 26N130W TO 23N140W TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH WED WITH RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR 30N130W BY LATE WED.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY S OF 27N AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS DECREASED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES BASED ON A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES LATE TUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT EARLY ON THURSDAY. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 1200 UTC ON THU AND FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$ GR

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