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AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N- NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT AFTERNOON.

$$ SCHAUER/DGS

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