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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N92W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W TO 08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 06N122W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 06N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 111W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 37N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRES COVERS MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED 10-11 FT NW SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. SEAS IN THAT AREA WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TODAY...THEN FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W BY SUN NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY SUN NIGHT...THE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE THAT AREA.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$ GR

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