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AXPZ20 KNHC 032205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 101W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W 16 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-15N. THE WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR 16N106W. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACTIVE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS THAT WAS TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ONE HAS DEVELOPED INTO A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM ANALYZED NEAR 11N119W MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED LOW CLOUD LINES CURLING INTO THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION...VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY IS INCREASING OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUMEROUS TYPE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL W-NW DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOUR WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N92W AND EXTENDS TO 09N99W WHERE IT BRIEFLY ENDS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT BEGINS AGAIN W OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N103W...AND CONTINUES TO 09N111W TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W...THEN TO 07N130W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-109W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 21N118W. THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N110W NWD TO A 1005 MB LOW AT 34N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS ALLOWING FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST N OF 26N E OF 117W WITH SEAS THERE OF 5-7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PRESENT PRES PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT SEA STATE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW SUBSIDED WITH WINDS DOWN TO 15-20 KT EARLIER TODAY. RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL REMAIN FROM 10.5N-11N BETWEEN 88W-90W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADEINT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF NE TO E 20-25 KT GAP WIND FLOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AGAIN TO 15-20 KT DURING LATE MORNING OF TUE AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DIMINISH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN S SWELL ARE EXPECTED FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 88W-91W AT THAT TIME.

$$ AGUIRRE

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