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AXPZ20 KNHC 012055
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 455 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N91W TO 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 17N104W TO 11N119W TO 12N136W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N136W TO 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 93W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION... WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 121W. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E TRACKS W-NW... THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BASE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 30N116W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N117W SW TO 27N120W TO 26N130W TO 30N137W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH SEAS MAINTAINING 8 FT GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W IN NW SWELL. THE AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE THURSDAY.

LASTLY...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY N OF 28N EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

$$ HUFFMAN

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