AXPZ20 KNHC 302225 CCA

2205 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

Corrected discussion section to include low near 09N105W

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.


A tropical axis is along 92W/93W from 07N to 12N moving westward at 13 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection have flared up within 240 nm east of the wave axis. from 07N to 13N between 87W and 91W. Low pressure may form along the wave as it moves to near 95W/96W late on Tuesday. r during the next 48 hours as the wave becomes more diffuse.

A tropical wave is just inland southern Panama and northwest Colombia near 78W south of 13N moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to produce widely scattered thunderstorms over much of Panama and southern Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms are noted over portions of northwest Colombia. The wave is forecast to out across the eastern Pacific waters tonight.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to low pressure near 09N105W 1012 mb to 12N114W to low pressure near 13N119W 1011 mb to 10N124W, then transitions to ITCZ axis from 10N124W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists within 240 nm south of the axis between 89W and 92W...also south of the trough from 04N to 07N between 105W and 108W...and from 07N to 09N between 111W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the axis between 95W and 97W.


The subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of about 15N and west of 115W. A cold front is within about 250 nm to the northwest of the area. It is being blocked by high pressure north of the area, and is expected to become stationary west of 140W during the next 36-48 hours. A persistent low pressure area near 13N119W of 1011 mb is moving southeastward at 15 to 20 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a cluster of scattered moderate convection within 60 nm of the low in its northeast quadrant. An Ascat pass from 1804Z showed northerly winds 15 to 20 kt on the northwest periphery of the low. The low is forecast to strengthen slightly as it nears 10N117W by Wednesday afternoon. The same Ascat pass revealed gentle trade winds over most of the area north of the convergence zone outside the vicinity of the low, and mainly light southerly winds to the south. A weak low pressure area is near 09N105W. It is forecast to reach near 10N107W Tuesday afternoon, and to near 10N111W by Wednesday afternoon. The main marine issue with respect to both lows through Wednesday will be a swell area moving from the south and southwest through much of the south/central and southeast portions of the area. The swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas to 10 feet are in a few small spots in the eastern portion of the area from 05N to 06N between 109W and 111W. The swell area will be slowly shrinking in size over the next 48 hours.

$$ Aguirre