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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281507
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 128.9W AT 28/1500 UTC OR 752 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E AND S QUADRANTS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NW WHILE SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. MARIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING SURF...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N109W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N129W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 05N81W TO 06N85W... WITHIN 120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 08N90W TO 08N98W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH TIME.

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N114W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATER TODAY WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-NW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 18N140W TO 15N137W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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