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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140315
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE ON MON. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM PULSING STRONG WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SW REACHING NEAR 04N103W ON SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-110W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N OF MON AND TUE. NEAR GALE WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON TUE NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

EPAC GALE WARNING....BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N128W TO 02N136W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 07-18N BETWEEN 120-134W. NORTHEASTERLY 30-40 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 10-16N BETWEEN 123-132W WITH SEAS ESTIMATED AT 11-17 FT. THESE GALE WINDS ARE SURROUNDED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 08-27N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH 10-13 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON SUN MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N128W TO 02N136W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N88W AND EXTENDS W TO 03N101W...THEN NW TO 06N113W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N89W TO 03N103W TO 09N113W TO 07N121W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO 19N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS N OF 26N E OF 120W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO EARLY SUN. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGHS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N120W AND 21N111W SURROUNDED BY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N ON WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PAC WATERS BETWEEN 107-120W WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON WITH 4-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE...AND 3-5 FT SEAS ON THU. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND SPREADING N ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N BRIEFLY ON MON AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ONE LAST PULSE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS IS CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. A NORTHEASTERLY 20-30 KT SURGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 07N96W. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONGER 20-30 EVENT ON THU NIGHT. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N133W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 110W. THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED S ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...AND MAY EVEN DIP S OF THE EQUATOR ON SUN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WILL RELAX W OF 125W ON SUN. EXPECT A W TO E ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 25N120W ON TUE NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW FLOW N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$ NELSON

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