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AXPZ20 KNHC 202045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N109W TO 22N111W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W ALONG 11N92W TO 8N109W THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N121W ALONG 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 4N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-82W...N OF 6N TO MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-108W... AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 108W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 86W-97W.


...DISCUSSION...

BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N W OF 115W AND FROM 14N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N125W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$ PAW

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