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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 UTC Wed Jun 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave N of 08N along 96.5W is moving westward at 15 kt.
The wave is currently aligned with an upper-level trough. This
setup is providing favorable conditions for convection. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 15N
between 96W and 100W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 08N96W
1008 MB to 11N105W to low pres near 11N109W 1008 MB to 13N120W to
low pres near 09N131W 1008 MB to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm of
the monsoon trough axis E of 104W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is found within 300 nm of the monsoon trough
axis W of 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N E of 120W:

A trough oriented from NNW to SSE will stay over the Baja
California peninsula this week. Light to gentle south winds will
continue over the Gulf waters through Wed, then winds will
increase to between gentle and moderate Thu through Sat.

A trough stretching from S to N is analyzed from 19N123W to
27N122W. This feature effectively separates the subtropical ridge
from weak 1014 mb high pressure centered at 27N120W. A ridge
extends SE from the high to near 17N109W. Light to moderate
anticyclonic winds surround the high and ridge across the waters
W of 105W.

Strong N to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt are pulsing across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. A weaker repeat performance is expected again
tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are anticipated as the resultant NE
wind wave mixes with long period SW swell. Fresh N to NE winds
tonight will cause seas to build to just 8 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Moderate monsoonal winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon
trough.

Gulf of Papagayo gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are
expected early this morning and again tonight with seas topping
out at 8 ft. Weaker gap winds between 15 and 20 kt from the NE to
E are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo each night from Thu night
through Sat night. Combined seas should remain below 8 ft during
this time frame.

Long period SW swell are maintaining combined seas of 8 to 10 ft
to the W of 93W. The SW swell have begun to subside but will
continue to travel NE and mix with the N and NE swells
propagating out of the gap areas through Thu night. Seas W of 93W
will fall below 8 ft on Fri.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N and W of 125W. A
area of 7 to 9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed N of 22N
between 124W and 132W. The area of higher seas will spread SW and
cover an area within 150 nm of a line from 30N129W to 22N136W
tonight. These conditions will persist through Sat morning as
strong to gale force winds along the California coast continue
generating large N to NE swell.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have begun to subside but
are maintaining seas just above 8 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas
in this area will subside below 8 ft tonight.

$$
cam

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