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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250324
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N133W MOVING W TO WNW AT 10 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W OR WNW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 100W/101W N OF 09N MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 16N.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N123W TO 11N124W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW WAS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N133W 1007 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 133W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N132W TO 18N136W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS NEAR 35N108W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 11N112W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE .

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS SHOULD MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 8 FT WITH EACH PULSE.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N130W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

$$ COBB

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