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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 6N91W. ITCZ FROM 6N91W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W- 81W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 15M-30N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 14N135W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 550 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM SE OF TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 22N115W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 135W AT 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 135W FRI...WITH SEAS 9-10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 8N W OF 115W.

$$ DGS

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