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AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO 19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$ MUNDELL

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