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AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N91W TO 03N100W TO 07.5N110W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N91W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. NEAR 35N113.5W ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N125W AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY SE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT THROUGH MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SUB TROPICS...AND EXTENDED ACROSS NW MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH 26.5N109W TO 20N113W TO 15N120W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED AND HAS GENERATED A 1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND LEAVE A BROAD FLAT TROUGH IN ITS WAKE BY FRI NIGHT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...IN NW TO N WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH THE MANZANILLO AREA THU EVENING BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N120W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU...AND INCREASE WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF THU EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING QUICKLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN THU EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$ STRIPLING

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