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AXPZ20 KNHC 010313
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N85W TO 04N95W TO 08N118W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 137W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N133W SENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 16N114W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 28N140W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 2000 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON. PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IS SUPPLYING FUEL FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO N OF 18N PRIMARILY W OF THE SIERRA MADE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. RADARS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ALONG ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS S AND TURNS MORE POSITIVE TILT...THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ON MON.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SE RETURN FLOW BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 2342 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WERE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N BY EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$ SCHAUER

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