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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270220
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N94W to 07N117W to a
low pres near 11N132W 1008 mb to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 07N to 10N between 93W-111W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 81W is moving westward across Panama at 15
to 20 kt. Minimal deep convection is noted over Pacific waters.

...DISCUSSION...

A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the entire
forecast area. A surface ridge extends from high pressure north
of the area to 25N125W to near 15N105W. Scatterometer data shows
mainly light to gentle on either side of the convergence zone.
An area of moderate southerly winds is located S of 07N between
90W-110W. A poorly organized surface low or trough is centered
near 12N132W moving west at 15 kt with spotty convection. Models
indicate slight chance of 25 kt winds and 8 ft seas in northern
quadrant before it exits the area Tue. Elsewhere, a moderate
Tehuantepec diurnal wind event is indicated early Tue morning
with max winds briefly reaching 30 kt early Tue morning, and
seas building to 9-10 ft downwind about 6 hours later. Another
round of long period SW swell crossing the southern boundary
tonight and spread northward between 90W-130W through Wed.

$$
Mundell

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