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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO 07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO 26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$ LEWITSKY

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