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AXPZ20 KNHC 251546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Tue Jul 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hilary is centered near 15.3N 107.8W at 25/1500 UTC or about 470 nm SSE of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N to 19N between 105W and 111W. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.

Hurricane Irwin is centered near 15.6N 119.4W at 25/1500 UTC or about 695 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N to 18N between 118W and 122W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.

Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 15.4N 136.8W at 25/1500 UTC or about 1100 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 17N between 135W and 139W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W N of 07N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 92W and 99W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N86W to 11N99W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 81W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula are expected to continue through Wednesday, as high pressure remains centered N-NW of the area. Seas will remain generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell through Wednesday. Thereafter...Hurricane Hilary will begin impacting the zones offshore of Baja California through Friday with increased winds and through Saturday night with large southerly swell to 10 ft. Gentle southerly flow will prevail in the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thursday night into Friday morning. Hilary is expected to impact the offshore waters beyond 200 nm off the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through today, then pass S of the Revillagigedo Islands Wednesday. Seas of at least 8 ft associated with Hilary are forecast to reach the waters between 103W and 106W in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes on Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through the week, occasionally building max seas to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves and long period SW swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the forecast zones the next several days. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell generating 5-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the forecast waters through mid week. Another set of cross- equatorial long period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thursday, and the coast of Central America on Thursday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis that extends across the forecast waters north of 22N. The pressure gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical cyclones between 13N and 19N will maintain fresh N to NE winds W of 130W through mid-week. By Thursday, cross equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft will spread across the waters south of 10N and east of 110W, persisting into the weekend.

$$ HUFFMAN

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