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AXPZ20 KNHC 032103 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07.5N108W TO 06.5N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N112W TO 06N131W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N131W AND EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 9 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN TRADES BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THU MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY... THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY.

$$ AL

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