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AXPZ20 KNHC 181003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N110W TO 02N122W TO 04N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N-11N W OF 132W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 07N97W TO 04N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-105W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N122W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA W OF 100W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE. DEBRIS MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NEWD IN STRONG SW FLOW WITHIN 350 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N138W TO 19N135W TO 22.5N126W WHERE IT THINS OUT AS IT APPROACHES DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PRESENT BEHIND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT 08N92W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN IT AND THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH TROUGH FROM 08N90W TO 07N97W TO 04N105W.

AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB LOCATED N OF THE AREA AT 39N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N135W TO 26N127W TO NEAR 20N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 113W. A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IS ANALYZED ALONG 140W FROM 02N TO 13N. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION FROM 10N-19N W OF 131W AS NOTED IN THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 9-10 FT RANGE. THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN SUN AND MON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT NEARS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ONGOING NE-E FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEAS AT ABOUT 8-9 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

$$ AGUIRRE

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