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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS QUICKLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 0900 UTC MAY 28 WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER...AND ALONG A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N107W TO 10N115W...AND WITHIN 290 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.7N 111.5W TODAY AT 29/1800 UTC...THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 114.0W FRI NIGHT AT 30/0600 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 04-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 00N129W. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W TO NEAR 09N124W TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N136W TONIGHT AND NEAR 09N139W ON ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW PASSING W OF 140W ON SAT NIGHT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC FROM ABOUT 07N77W TO 06N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS THE GULF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N114W 999 MB.OF CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 13N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 12N91W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-136W...SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE INTERIOR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES W TO A CREST NEAR 08N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N90W. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 7 FT AT SUNRISE TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI.

$$ NELSON

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