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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300416
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N WITHIN 45 NM W OF WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 06N-11N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-12N WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W TO 08N101W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N102W TO 10N105W TO 06N122W TO 08N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N122W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 33N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR 16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W...WITH 20- 25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W-95W EARLY WED MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$ MUNDELL

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