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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W OR ABOUT 350 NM WSW OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WILL CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N ALONG 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT REACHING NEAR 92W TUE MORNING AND 95W WED NIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 18N ALONG 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. THIS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT. WEAK LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ AXIS BY EARLY WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N95W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N136W 1009 MB TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 115W.


...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 15N126W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 13N127W TO 13N144W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ZONE CONVECTION W OF 128W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR LOW NEAR 15N136W BUT AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TUE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW.

N WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE MORNING WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT DURING EACH PULSE.

SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN E OF 107W. SEAS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$ MUNDELL

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