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AXPZ20 KNHC 032105
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 18.7N 115.8W AT 2100 UTC SEPTEMBER 3 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH DIMINISHING SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 09N90W TO 11N97W TO 10N105W TO 12N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N148W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03N133W TO 10N123W TO 10N112W TO 03.4S95W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 124W.

$$ AL

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