000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
...DISCUSSION...
A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.
$$
NR/JA
