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AXPZ20 KNHC 191617
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION NOT YET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD TO 06.5N99W TO 05.5N112W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07N E OF 82W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 86W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N128W THEN ON TO 22N135W. E OF THIS FEATURE A RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 13N ALONG 96-97W NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW S OF 15N REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS AND IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE TO INTERRUPT AND DIVERT THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INDUCED ACROSS ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING W OF 120W.

THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. WILL AID IN PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL YIELD MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N143W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES INVOF THE ITCZ IS YIELDING A ZONE OF NE TRADEWINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH ISOLATED POCKETS TO 25 KT FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 137W EXTENDING TO S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION JUST TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND WILL FORCE THIS SURFACE HIGH TO THE E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUATEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH A BIT MORE TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCES THE N WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.

LOOK FOR AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE ITCZ DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PREVAIL.

$$ STRIPLING

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