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AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR 28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO 03N90W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 04N90W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO 05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W 14N135W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FEET. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS.


.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$ MT

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