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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061552
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 08N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 04N112W TO 11N112W. THE ITCZ AXIS REACHES FROM 08N116W TO 08N121W TO 05N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N94W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30-31N IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE HOVERING JUST BELOW 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SAT. SW FLOW IN THIS AREA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT SAT NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NORTH WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED...THEN WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT EVENING. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE COULD CAUSE WINDS TO BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG SAT NIGHT.

STRONG E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM LATE SAT NIGHT UNTIL SUN MORNING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 30N137W TO 16N108W. STRONG NW WINDS ARE STILL OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 123-133W WITH FRESH NW WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 25N BETWEEN 120-140W. MIXED NE...SW AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ WILL RELAX TONIGHT. SEAS N OF 20N WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. MIXED SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS JUST ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT N OF THE ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN 05N AND 20N W OF 120W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE TUE NIGHT... BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REACH 8 FT ALONG AND S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 111W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$ MCELROY

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