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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave axis is along 81W north
of 05N moving west near 20 kt. The wave is moving through the
eastern portion of the monsoon trough axis. With diffluent flow
aloft in place across Panama, clusters of scattered moderate
isolated strong convection developed during the overnight hours
over much of Panama. The wave has also enhanced convection
along and west of the coast of Colombia to 83W. Wave tracking
guidance indicates that the wave will continue in a general west
to west-northwest motion through Saturday passing in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sunday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia west to
10N85W to low pressure near 09N95W mb to low pressure near 10N105W
1008 mb to 13N111W to low pressure near 13N116W 1010 mb to 13N125W
to low pressure near 13N116W 1010 mb to low pressure near 13N135W
1009 MB. ITCZ axis extends from 13N135W to beyond 08N140W.
Numerous strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 10N95W
to 14N95W. Scattered strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to
09N between 77W and 83W, within 180 nm south of axis between 86W
and 90W, and elsewhere from 10N to 14N between 93W and 96W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
south of axis between 132W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm south of axis between 100W and 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

The combination of strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered well
northwest of the area, and low pressure over the western U.S.
continues to send northeast swell into the northern portion of
the area where resulting seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. The
swell area will gradually decay through Sunday allowing for the
seas to slowly subside. A surface trough will persist along the
Baja California peninsula through at least Sunday supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow over the northern
Gulf of California. Looking ahead, the low pressure centered near
10N105W is expected to gradually deepen through late Sunday as it
moves west-northwest along the monsoon trough. This may bring
strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft to the area from 15N to 17N to
the south of the Revillagigedo Islands from late Sunday through
early Tuesday.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

The monsoon trough remains very active this morning, with a series
of low pressure systems along the trough axis between 95W and
120W. Model guidance is consistently showing further development
of one or more of these low pressure areas. While some organization
is noted primarily in the mid levels of the atmosphere and
primarily concerning the low pressure area centered near 10N105W,
the showers and thunderstorms around the low pressure are minimal
in coverage, and have not persisted long enough for sustained
further development. Altimeter data from this morning indicates
wave heights of 7 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough between 90W
and 105W, due in part to longer period southwest swell. Seas to 8
ft in mixed east and south swell are also noted within 270 nm
northeast quadrant of low near 10N105W, and within 180 nm
northeast quadrant of low near 09N95W.

The normal overnight increase in gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo will be enhanced slightly early Saturday morning with the
assistance of a passing tropical wave. Looking ahead, the low
pressure centered near 10N105W is expected to gradually deepen
through late Sunday as it moves west-northwest along the monsoon
trough, with 20 to 25 kt roughly within 150 nm in the northern
quadrant of the low pressure, and seas building to 8 to 10 ft.
Winds and seas may possibly be higher on Sunday if the low
were to deepen at a quicker rate.

West of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the region north of 15N and west of 120W.
Recent altimeter data indicated wave heights of 8 to 9 ft over
much of the area north of 25N. This is largely due to northerly
swell generated from persistent strong to gale force winds off the
coast of California. Various wave guidance indicates seas of 8 to
9 ft will cover the region north of 15N and west of 125W through
early Sunday, before decaying to less than 8 ft over most this
region through Monday. The low pressure area centered near 13N116W
along the monsoon trough will shift west-northwest reaching near
16N125W by Monday afternoon with 20 to 25 kt winds and seas of
9 to 10 ft within 120 nm of the northern semicircle, then weaken
through Tuesday. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will
persist through south of 20N into early next week.

$$
AGUIRRE

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