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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250243
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W FROM 02N TO 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADIENT FLOW WILL PULSE UPWARD THIS EVENING MAINLY WITHING 200 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT N OF 20N OFF THE BAJA COAST...BUT 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N DUE THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REINFORCE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY ROUGH SURF TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO MANZANILLO.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IS INTERACTING WITH RIDGING REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE ALREADY 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR WEST AS 90W TONIGHT OFF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT...REINFORCING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST MON AND TUE. FARTHER WEST...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N117W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWING THE LOW PRES NOT DEEPENING AS IT DRIFTS WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOKING AHEAD...LOW PRES RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR 10N110W AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD LOW 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 12N133W DRIFTING NW. CONVECTION INCREASED EARLIER...BUT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES NW AND CLOSER TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N146W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS...BETWEEN A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N143W AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST BETWEEN THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N133W...WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ANOTHER LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WEST OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH 140W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NEARBY TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N132W SHIFTS N OF THE AREA.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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