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AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 07N92W TO 08N100W TO 05N106W TO 08N119W TO 05N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 05N124W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W AND IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 06N125W TO 04N135W TO 05N140W TO 08N140W TO 10N134W TO 06N125W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.


...DISCUSSION...

LATEST SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY GENERATED 11 FT NW SWELL THAT ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE BETWEEN SUNSET ON SATURDAY AND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT HEADS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N142W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 15N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS LESSENED AS THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED TRADES FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 130W TO DECREASE FROM STRONG TO FRESH.

OTHERWISE...FETCH GENERATION REGIONS FOR NW AND NE SWELLS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR HAVE BEGUN TO SHRINK AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NEARS THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SWELL GROUPS WILL MERGE AND DECAY OVER THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON. $$ MCELROY

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