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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 116W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 30N115W TO 24N124W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 31N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED EVENING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18 SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22 SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF 130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 12N110W TO 3.4S89W. BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$ FORMOSA

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