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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected issuance time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 16.3N 126.1W at 0300 UTC,
moving northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Maximum sustained
winds have increased to 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, making
Georgette a category 4 hurricane. Estimated minimum central
pressure has dropped to 952 mb. The eye has cleared out in the
past several hours per satellite imagery, and reflects the
recent continued intensification. Numerous strong convection is
noted within 75 nm of the center, except 90 nm n quadrant.
Georgette is expected to continue moving northwest during the
next few of days, and has a chance to strengthen a bit further
tonight before reaching cooler waters Monday that will induce a
gradual weakening trend. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.0N 113.0W at 0300 UTC, or
about 245 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Frank is moving west, or 275 degrees at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds remain 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt while estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Frank has slowed down during the
past 12 hours and the center has shift underneath the strongest
convection. However, the strong convective burst seen earlier
this afternoon has ended and cloud tops have warmed and
deteriorated modestly. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection remains within 60 nm northwest and 180 nm southeast
semicircles. Frank is expected to resume a west-northwest motion
later tonight and Monday and will remain in a modestly favorable
environment for additional intensification.
Although little change in intensity is forecast during the next
24-48 hours, there remains a small chance for Frank still to
become a hurricane. Beyond Tuesday, Frank will continue moving
west-northwest and gradually weaken to a tropical storm before
becoming a post-tropical remnant low on Thu. Large southerly
swell from Frank continues to impact the southern coast of Baja
California Sur and south portions of the Gulf of California this
evening, which will gradually shift northward into central
portions of the Baja Peninsula tonight and Monday. This will
generate rough and dangerous surf along the local regional
coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weakening tropical wave north of 09N is along about 106W-107W
this evening. Widely scattered convection associated with the
wave is present mainly north of 13N.

A second tropical wave north of 10N is along 94W/95W and
contributing to widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
convection across this area. This wave will shift to the west
across the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore
coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N74W to 06.5N85W to
09N95W to 11N111W. The ITCZ extends from 12N128W to beyond
09N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is
present within 150 nm of the trough between 88W and 111W. Widely
scattered moderate to strong convection is north of 13N between
92W and 98.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm north and 150 nm south of the ITCZ west of 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Tropical Storm Frank continues to move slowly west away from
Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands, with winds and seas
improving. However bands of moderate convection occurring across
the southeast side of Frank persist across the islands this
evening. Southerly swell associated with Frank has been
impacting the area between the southern entrance of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes, and has
shifted north and northeast and spread inside southern portions
of the Gulf of California. Offshore seas of 6 to 9 ft are
presently occurring across this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will
spread over the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur
through early Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank.
This will maintain rough and hazardous marine conditions across
the offshore waters, and produce large and powerful surf along
the exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur and western
Mexico. Large waves and very strong rip currents will dominate
these coastlines through Monday.

Northerly swell related to strong winds of California are
pushing south and will mix with southerly swell generated from
Frank off the Baja California Norte coast through the next
couple of days.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in
trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly
formed ITCZ boundary. The track of Georgette will weaken the ridge
again however over the the next couple of days, allowing trade
winds to diminish.

Swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it crosses west of
120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell generated
from strong winds off California. Northerly swell to 9 ft will
propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 24N into mid
week.

$$
Stripling

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