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AXPZ20 KNHC 051004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS...GALE FORCE BY 06/0600 UTC ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...STORM FORCE BY 07/06OO UTC...EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE BEING FORECAST TO REACH TO AT LEAST 19 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALSO AFTER THE STORM EVENT. THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS FIRST, EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE STORM-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS 24 HOURS AFTER THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS.

A ROUND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA AT THE SAME TIME MORE OR LESS AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE- FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS. THE WIND AND SWELL FROM EACH EVENT IN EACH GULF AREA EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM THOSE EVENTS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND TO MERGE IN THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED ROUNDS OF 20 KNOT WINDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. A BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BEGINS AROUND 54 HOURS. MORE PULSING OF AT LEAST 20 KNOT WINDS CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE 72-HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 08N122W TO 07N124W BEYOND 08N140W.05N96W TO 03N104W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N120W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W AND 09N124W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W EASTWARD. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD.

ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W BEYOND 22N146W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO 22N119W TO 13N104W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N95W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N98W...TO 03N105W AND 03N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.

A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N115W 09N116W 05N117W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05/038 UTC SHOW FRESH-TO-STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 10N TO 17N FROM 116W WESTWARD AT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR 48 HOURS.

$$ MT

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