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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10- 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM 28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT... BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$ NELSON

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