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AXPZ20 KNHC 260922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N95W TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS HAVE BROUGHT WINDS TO GALE FORCE THAT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY MON...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TUE. SEAS RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WIND WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL REACHING DOWNSTREAM OVER 500 NM TO THE S-SW AND INCREASINGLY MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 12N89W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W TO 07N104W TO 13N127W TO 12N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 12N132W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N111W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS PERSIST OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE NW OF THE HIGH FROM 30N123W TO 24N140W. EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES NEAR THE FRONT LIKELY IN NW SWELL. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS REVEAL SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE REGION SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG 33N/34N TO THE NORTH AND RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. NW SWELL DOMINATES AND IS CURRENTLY OUTRUNNING THE FRONT WITH SEAS OVERALL IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE...HIGHEST NEAR 30N134W.

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MOST PREVALENT FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W NEAR A 1013 MB LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 12N124W. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING W OF THE AREA.

FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N87W AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAXIMIZED IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MON.

$$ HUFFMAN

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