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AXPZ20 KNHC 261520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Wed Jul 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hilary is centered near 16.4N 112.3W at 26/1500 UTC or about 325 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.

Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 15.6N 122.1W at 26/1500 UTC or about 815 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 15N to 18N between 120W and 124W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W N of 06N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 102W and 107W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N98W to 11N104W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N E of 90W...from 12N to 15N between 92W and 95W...from 07N to 11N between 102W and 107W...and from 07N to 12N between 124W and 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to continue within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Seas will maintain 6 to 8 ft as southerly swell associated with Hurricane Hilary will continue impacting the forecast zones offshore of Baja California through Friday then remain W of the area during the weekend. Gentle southerly flow will prevail in the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Friday morning with seas peaking at 8 ft briefly during the period of strongest winds. Hilary is passing S of the Revillagigedo Islands today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow the next few days, occasionally building maximum seas to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves and long period SW swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected the next few days. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate into the forecast waters through Saturday, reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis extending across the forecast waters N of 23N. The pressure gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical cyclone activity will maintain moderate to fresh N to NE winds W of 120W through Saturday. Cross equatorial 8-9 ft SW swell will spread across the waters S of 10N and E of 110W, persisting into the weekend.

$$ HUFFMAN

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