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AXPZ20 KNHC 061000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15-25 FT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS S ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO STRONG GALE FORCE FORCE OF 30-45 KT BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE 18-26 FT RANGE. EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12- 18 FT BY THEN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 01N90W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 104W...AND TO 01S117W TO 03S128W TO 02S140W.


...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W TO 24N118W TO 18N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE N AREA N OF 19N W OF 112W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 118W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TODAY S HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS... EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA.

NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PULSES OF FEW SHORT- LIVED BURSTS OF 20 KT WINDS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH JUST INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST ADJACENT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES LESS DISCERNIBLE...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT N OF 27N BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THEN 8 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$ AGUIRRE

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