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AXPZ20 KNHC 260948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Hilary is centered near 16.3N 111.0W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained windS are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 105 nm of the center, with scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere within 150 nm. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.

Hurricane Irwin is centered near 15.7N 121.5W at 0900 UTC moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is displaced within 120 nm NW of the center. Irwin is expected to interact with hurricane Hilary during the next 3 days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.

Tropical Depression Greg is centered near 17.8N 139.5W at 0900 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Greg is forecast to move west of the forecast area and weaken into a remnant low by tonight. Convective activity continues to decrease with scattered moderate convection noted within 60 nm NW of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W N of 05N moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W across western Panama and southern Costa Rica to 09N88W to 12N105W. A small area of active convection is within 60 nm of 13N91W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to continue within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Seas will gradually increase as southerly swell associated with Hurricane Hilary will begin impacting the forecast zones offshore of Baja California through Friday. Gentle southerly flow will prevail in the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Friday morning. Hilary is expected to pass S of the Revillagigedo Islands today. 8 ft seas associated with Hilary are forecast to reach the outer waters of marine zone PMZ015 through Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow the next few days, occasionally building max seas to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves and long period SW swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected the next few days. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate into the forecast waters through Saturday, reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis that extends across the forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical cyclone activity will maintain moderate to fresh fresh N to NE winds W of 120W through Thursday. Cross equatorial 8-9 ft SW swell will spread across the waters south of 10N and east of 110W, persisting into the weekend.

$$ Mundell

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