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AXPZ20 KNHC 022118
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 114.9W AT 2100 UTC MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N119W TO 12N114W. THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THU BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH DIMINISHING SST AND DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 11N97W TO 10N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N EAST OF 106W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER W OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 143.1W AT 2100 UTC SEP 2. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS W SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT FROM 08N TO 28N W OF 135W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N152W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 25N115W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 05N W OF 100W. BY FRI SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF A LINE FROM 00N133W TO 14N125W TO 14N110W TO 03.4S90W.

$$ AL

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