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AXPZ20 KNHC 282156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 03-06N TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N127W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W.

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W TO 12N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N117W TO 09N129W.


...DISCUSSION... ZCZC 280154 TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM 32N125W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 07N106W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N130W TO 20N110W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER FLORIDA TO THE S OF 30N WHERE IT IS FEEDING INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE LINE FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N97W. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT... AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON SUN AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.


.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$ NELSON

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