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AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N135.5W AT 07/0600 UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 600 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED GRADUALLY. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N87W 08N92W 08N98W 06N103W 06N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N105W 07N112W TO 04N123W AND 04N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 10N...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN 80W AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS/THE COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 09N...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.


...DISCUSSION...

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET DURING THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS...THEY WILL PROPAGATE OFF TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOON...STOPPING BRIEFLY...AND THEN HAPPENING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND 140W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 25N130W BEYOND 28N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N112W 17N117W 12N119W 05N122W TO 1N121W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF MEXICO 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 30N140W. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FROM 21N NORTHWARD...FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD...AND OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 1005 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N135.5W.

$$ MT

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