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AXPZ20 KNHC 010914
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 9.4N 102.7W OR ABOUT 480 NM...885 KM S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND MORE DEFINED CURVED BANDS ARE FORMING NEAR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION. VANCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 0410 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS TO 25 KT EXTENDING AS FAR AS 170 NM...315 KM S-SW FROM THE COAST. BY 0600 UTC...THESE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING 40 KT WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY SUN. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-16 FT TO COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 10N95W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N108W TO 08N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OVER WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRES AREA LIES NEAR 11N123W ABOUT 1000 NM...1850 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED NEAR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N WATERS FROM 30N122W TO 26N126W TO 22N135W. NW SWELL TO 13 FT CAN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS OBSERVED BY THE 0423 UTC CRYOSAT PASS. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W.

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CHIVELA PASS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PRIMARILY IMPACT THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 90W THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MON MORNING.

$$ SCHAUER

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