000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.
...DISCUSSION...
A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12
FT.
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.
$$
NR/JA
