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AXPZ20 KNHC 281526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. AS A RESULT...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 13N96W BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WHICH LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSE TO 25-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING... AND TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W BY SUN MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

VERY WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N103W TO 04N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N120W TO 08N130W THEN RESUMES AT 06N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE SEA HEIGHTS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES NE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM FROM 12N131W TO 06N132W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 12N. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BROAD AND WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY BETWEEN 103W AND 120W AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SWELL EVENT IS LIKELY GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY MON MORNING.

$$ GR

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