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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N88W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 05N96W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N116W TO 03N121W. ITCZ FROM 03N121W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 25N135W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N135W TO 26N123W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 115-125 KT WITH THE JET CONTINUES INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 110W TO 119W.

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE N AND NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND HAS PEAKED IN SIZE TODAY. SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASSES MEASURED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 100W...DOMINATED BY THIS LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINES FROM PERU TO COLOMBIA TO MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THEN MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY BEFORE THIS CURRENT SWELL EVENT ENDS LATE MON NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS ALSO ENTERING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.

$$ DGS

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