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AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 113W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY TUE.

$$ SCHAUER

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