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AXPZ20 KNHC 300957
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS AROUND 32 KT...AN INDICATION THE INTENSITY MAY BE WANING OUTSIDE THE PEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS EXISTS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 108W. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENDING BY SAT MORNING AS WINDS IN SW GULF OF MEXICO VEERS TO SE RETURN FLOW.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL REMAIN STRONG THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG AND DECREASE CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE. SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS COMBINING WITH SEAS GENERATED IN TEHUANTEPEC BUT WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 05N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALONG 117W N OF 10N IS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY THEN FORM A CUT-OFF A LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SAT.

1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 35N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 18N139W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES W OF 135W N OF THE ITCZ. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF 125W THROUGH EARLY SUN.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING W OF SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER 25 KT NEAR 27N BASED ON 0400 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ MUNDELL

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