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AXPZ20 KNHC 291002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR 29/0308 UTC HELPS IN ORDER TO VERIFY THE WARNING. THE FORECAST STARTS WITH GALE- FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WEAKEN TO LOWER THAN GALE-FORCE AT THE END OF THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER THAT...TO 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY SHRINK IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT 36 HOURS...TO NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N81W TO 06N85W TO 05N88W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N88W TO 04N95W TO 06N103W TO 06N108W. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 01N TO 11N. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N114W TO 05N123W TO 07N130W. A SECOND NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 13N136W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 09N136W...TO 05N136W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N124W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N127W...TO 23N130W... BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH AND CONTINUING BEYOND 21N140W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 06N102W...TO 15N114W TO 23N117W...AND BEYOND 32N116W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N135W...THROUGH 32N132W...TO 22N125W...TO 18N105W. THE SURFACE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER PRESSURE...AND THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE ITCZ...IS RESULTING IN 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10N TO 22N FROM 130W WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 125W...AND ARE REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...ACROSS THIS GAP WIND REGION FROM SUNRISE TO THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE MIDDAY HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

$$ MT

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