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AXPZ20 KNHC 231605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 134.1W AT 23/1500 UTC. MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM E AND 75 NM OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDERAWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 126.5W AT 23/1500 UTC...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NO SIGNFICANT CONVECTION IS OSBERVED NEAR LOWELL. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OSBERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OSBERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA NEAR 12N87W...ASSISTING DEVELOPING OVER A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 10N92W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NO SIGNFICANT CONVECTION OR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AREAS...SEAS TO 8 OR GREATER IN MIXED SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS N OF 10N W OF 125W DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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