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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO 09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.


...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ SCHAUER

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