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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N85W TO 06.5N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO 28N122W THEN SE TO NEAR 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 9 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS DRAGGING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N AND REACH 130W BY SAT MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.

AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MODESTLY AND CONTINUE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 11-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAXIMIZING TO NEAR 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING. THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

$$ STRIPLING

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