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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JIMENA AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE FEATURE OF ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...VERY WELL PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY SYMMETRICAL IN APPEARANCE. THE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EYE IN THE E QUADRANT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...5 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 120 NM SW QUADRANTS. THE WIND FIELD AROUND JIMENA IS QUICKLY EXPANDING WITH THE 20-33 KT WIND FIELD WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT FOUND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JIMENA WILL BLOSSOM INTO A LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE 12 FT SEA RADII IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS JIMENA APPROACHES 130W-135W. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 08N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N101W TO 08N109W TO 07N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 97W-103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE IGNACIO W OF THE AREA NEAR 15N 145W AT 03100 UTC CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS THAT EARLIER IMPACTED A PORTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS NOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W OF 140W. HOWEVER...LINGERING 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N-17N W OF 139W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 26N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. A WEAK TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM NEAR 31N131W TO 26N135W TO 23N139W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS ADVANCING EASTWARD JUST N OF THE NW PORTION. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 32N133W TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE SAT WHILE WEAKENING. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EARLIER TRIGGERED OFF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF 24N135W. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT MOVES NE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO INTENSIFY.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE JIMENA A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 17N-32N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT E OF 105W WHERE PATCHES OF MODERATE TO FRESH SLY WINDS ARE PRESENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ AGUIRRE

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