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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141559
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS... ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM PULSING STRONG WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN VERY CONFUSED SEAS AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL RETURN BY TUE MORNING...LIKELY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THU IF NOT LONGER. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N123W TO 07N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N E OF TROUGH TO 120W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS... PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 14N TO 134W...WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 12-18 FT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 03N110W TO 04N124W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SW TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS TO THE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ WHERE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO PRESENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE AREA IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT IN COVERAGE AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES NE AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N135W TO 14N136W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 18N135W. A FEW TSTMS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WED.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT ATTACHED TO PACIFIC NW LOW PRES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL WITH BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY MON EVENING AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THEREAFTER ALLOWING FOR ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS JUST S OF THE THE AZUERO PENINSULA. SEAS ARE UP TO 7-10 FT. THE SUPPORTING PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ON MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING.

$$ GR

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