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AXPZ20 KNHC 011547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 125.7W AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. ISELLE IS STRENGTHENING A LITTLE MORE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N111W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N110.5W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N88W TO 08N98W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N110.5W TO 14N120W...THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. ISELLE NEAR 14N125W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N137W TO 12N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 78W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 19N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE TO NEAR 26N124W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N110W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 22N121W TO 18N125W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N111W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 07N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 88W.

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N137W AND NOW IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS N OF THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS W OF 140W.

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ GR

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